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February 13, 2024

Predicting the Future of Cyber Security and Cyber Threats

Read about cyber security predictions and cyber threats in 2024. Staying up-to-date on cyber attacks and cyber security is vital to all organizations.
Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
The Darktrace Threat Research Team
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13
Feb 2024

2024 Cyber Threat Predictions

After analyzing the observed threats and trends that have affected customers across the Darktrace fleet in the second half of 2023, the Darktrace Threat Research team have made a series of predictions. These assessments highlight the threats that are expected to impact Darktrace customers and the wider threat landscape in 2024.  

1. Initial access broker malware, especially loader malware, is likely to be a prominent threat.  

Initial access malware such as loaders, information stealers, remote access trojans (RATs), and downloaders, will probably remain some of the most relevant threats to most organizations, especially when noted in the context that many are interoperable, tailorable Malware-as-a-Service (MaaS) tools.  

These types of malware often serve as a gateway for threat actors to compromise a target network before launching subsequent, and often more severe, attacks. Would-be cyber criminals are now able to purchase and deploy these malware without the need for technical expertise.  

2. Infrastructure complexity will increase SaaS attacks and leave cloud environments vulnerable.

The increasing reliance on SaaS solutions and platforms for business operations, coupled with larger attack surfaces than ever before, make it likely that attackers will continue targeting organizations’ cloud environments with account takeovers granting unauthorized access to privileged accounts. These account hijacks can be further exploited to perform a variety of nefarious activities, such as data exfiltration or launching phishing campaigns.  

It is paramount for organizations to not only fortify their SaaS environments with security strategies including multifactor authentication (MFA), regular monitoring of credential usage, and strict access control, but moreover augment SaaS security using anomaly detection.  

3. The prevalence and evolution of ransomware will surge.

The Darktrace Threat Research team anticipates a surge in Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) attacks, marking a shift away from conventional ransomware. The uptick in RaaS observed in 2023 evidences that ransomware itself is becoming increasingly accessible, lowering the barrier to entry for threat actors. This surge also demonstrates how lucrative RaaS is for ransomware operators in the current threat landscape, further reinforcing a rise in RaaS.  

This development is likely to coincide with a pivot away from traditional encryption-centric ransomware tactics towards more sophisticated and advanced extortion methods. Rather than relying solely on encrypting a target’s data for ransom, malicious actors are expected to employ double or even triple extortion strategies, encrypting sensitive data but also threatening to leak or sell stolen data unless their ransom demands are met.  

4. Threat actors will continue to rely on living-off-the-land techniques.

With evolving sophistication of security tools and greater industry adoption of AI techniques, threat actors have focused more and more on living-off-the-land. The extremely high volume of vulnerabilities discovered in 2023 highlights threat actors’ persistent need to compromise trusted organizational mechanisms and infrastructure to gain a foothold in networks. Although inbox intrusions remain prevalent, the exploitation of edge infrastructure has demonstrably expanded compared to previously endpoint-focused attacks.

Given the prevalence of endpoint evasion techniques and the high proportion of tactics utilizing native programs, threat actors will likely progressively live off the land, even utilizing new techniques or vulnerabilities to do so, rather than relying on unidentified malicious programs which evade traditional detection.

5. The “as-a-Service” marketplace will contribute to an increase in multi-phase compromises.

With the increasing “as-a-Service” marketplaces, it is likely that organizations will face more multi-phase compromises, where one strain of malware is observed stealing information and that data is sold to additional threat actors or utilized for second and/or third-stage malware or ransomware.  

This trend builds on the concept of initial access brokers but utilizes basic browser scraping and data harvesting to make as much profit throughout the compromise process as possible. This will likely result in security teams observing multiple malicious tools and strains of malware during incident response and/or multi-functional malware, with attack cycles and kill chains morphing into less linear and more abstract chains of activity. This makes it more essential than ever for security teams to apply an anomaly approach to stay ahead of asymmetric threats.  

6. Generative AI will let attackers phish across language barriers.

Classic phishing scams play a numbers game, targeting as many inboxes as possible and hoping that some users take the bait, even if there are spelling and grammar errors in the email. Now, Generative AI has reduced the barrier for entry, so malicious actors do not have to speak English to produce a convincing phishing email.  

In 2024, we anticipate this to extend to other languages and regions. For example, many countries in Asia have not yet been greatly impacted by phishing. Yet Generative AI continues to develop, with improved data input yielding improved output. More phishing emails will start to be generated in various languages with increasing sophistication.    

7. AI regulation and data privacy rules will stifle AI adoption.

AI regulation, like the European Union’s AI Act, is starting to be implemented around the world. As policies continue to come out about AI and data privacy, practical and pragmatic AI adoption becomes more complex.  

Businesses will likely have to take a second look at AI they are adopting into their tech stacks to consider what may happen if a tool is suddenly deprecated because it is no longer fit for purpose or loses the approvals in place. Many will also have to use completely different supply chain evaluations from their usual ones based on developing compliance registrars. This increased complication may make businesses reticent to adopt innovative AI solutions as legislation scrambles to keep up.  

Learn more about observed threat trends and future predictions in the 2023 End of Year Threat Report

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
The Darktrace Threat Research Team

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April 2, 2026

How Chinese-Nexus Cyber Operations Have Evolved – And What It Means For Cyber Risk and Resilience 

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Cybersecurity has traditionally organized risk around incidents, breaches, campaigns, and threat groups. Those elements still matter—but if we fixate on individual incidents, we risk missing the shaping of the entire ecosystem. Nation‑state–aligned operators are increasingly using cyber operations to establish long-term strategic leverage, not just to execute isolated attacks or short‑term objectives.  

Our latest research, Crimson Echo, shifts the lens accordingly. Instead of dissecting campaigns, malware families, or actor labels as discrete events, the threat research team analyzed Chinese‑nexus activity as a continuum of behaviors over time. That broader view reveals how these operators position themselves within environments: quietly, patiently, and persistently—often preparing the ground long before any recognizable “incident” occurs.  

How Chinese-nexus cyber threats have changed over time

Chinese-nexus cyber activity has evolved in four phases over the past two decades. This ranges from early, high-volume operations in the 1990s and early 2000s to more structured, strategically-aligned activity in the 2010s, and now toward highly adaptive, identity-centric intrusions.  

Today’s phase is defined by scale, operational restraint, and persistence. Attackers are establishing access, evaluating its strategic value, and maintaining it over time. This reflects a broader shift: cyber operations are increasingly integrated into long-term economic and geopolitical strategies. Access to digital environments, specifically those tied to critical national infrastructure, supply chains, and advanced technology, has become a form of strategic leverage for the long-term.  

How Darktrace analysts took a behavioral approach to a complex problem

One of the challenges in analyzing nation-state cyber activity is attribution. Traditional approaches often rely on tracking specific threat groups, malware families, or infrastructure. But these change constantly, and in the case of Chinese-nexus operations, they often overlap.

Crimson Echo is the result of a retrospective analysis of three years of anomalous activity observed across the Darktrace fleet between July 2022 and September 2025. Using behavioral detection, threat hunting, open-source intelligence, and a structured attribution framework (the Darktrace Cybersecurity Attribution Framework), the team identified dozens of medium- to high-confidence cases and analyzed them for recurring operational patterns.  

This long-horizon, behavior-centric approach allows Darktrace to identify consistent patterns in how intrusions unfold, reinforcing that behavioral patterns that matter.  

What the data shows

Several clear trends emerged from the analysis:

  • Targeting is concentrated in strategically important sectors. Across the dataset, 88% of intrusions occurred in organizations classified as critical infrastructure, including transportation, critical manufacturing, telecommunications, government, healthcare, and Information Technology (IT) services.  
  • Strategically important Western economies are a primary focus. The US alone accounted for 22.5% of observed cases, and when combined with major European economies including Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, over half of all intrusions (55%) were concentrated in these regions.  
  • Nearly 63% of intrusions of intrusions began with the exploitation of internet-facing systems, reinforcing the continued risk posed by externally exposed infrastructure.  

Two models of cyber operations

Across the dataset, Chinese-nexus activity followed two operational models.  

The first is best described as “smash and grab.” These are short-horizon intrusions optimized for speed. Attackers move quickly – often exfiltrating data within 48 hours – and prioritize scale over stealth. The median duration of these compromises is around 10 days. It’s clear they are willing to risk detection for short-term gain.  

The second is “low and slow.” These operations were less prevalent in the dataset, but potentially more consequential. Here, attackers prioritize persistence, establishing durable access through identity systems and legitimate administrative tools, so they can maintain access undetected for months or even years. In one notable case, the actor had fully compromised the environment and established persistence, only to resurface in the environment more than 600 days after. The operational pause underscores both the depth of the intrusion and the actor’s long‑term strategic intent. This suggests that cyber access is a strategic asset to preserve and leverage over time, and we observed these attacks most often inin sectors of the high strategic importance.  

It’s important to note that the same operational ecosystem can employ both models concurrently, selecting the appropriate model based on target value, urgency, intended access. The observation of a “smash and grab” model should not be solely interpreted as a failure of tradecraft, but instead an operational choice likely aligned with objectives. Where “low and slow” operations are optimized for patience, smash and grab is optimized for speed; both seemingly are deliberate operational choices, not necessarily indicators of capability.  

Rethinking cyber risk

For many organizations, cyber risk is still framed as a series of discrete events. Something happens, it is detected and contained, and the organization moves on. But persistent access, particularly in deeply interconnected environments that span cloud, identity-based SaaS and agentic systems, and complex supply chain networks, creates a major ongoing exposure risk. Even in the absence of disruption or data theft, that access can provide insight into operations, dependencies, and strategic decision-making. Cyber risk increasingly resembles long-term competitive intelligence.  

This has impact beyond the Security Operations Center. Organizations need to shift how they think about governance, visibility, and resilience, and treat cyber exposure as a structural business risk instead of an incident response challenge.  

What comes next

The goal of this research is to provide a clearer understanding of how these operations work, so defenders can recognize them earlier and respond more effectively. That includes shifting from tracking indicators to understanding behaviors, treating identity providers as critical infrastructure risks, expanding supplier oversight, investing in rapid containment capabilities, and more.  

Learn more about the findings of Darktrace’s latest research, Crimson Echo: Understanding Chinese-nexus Cyber Operations Through Behavioral Analysis, by downloading the full report and summaries for business leaders, CISOs, and SOC analysts here.  

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About the author
Nathaniel Jones
VP, Security & AI Strategy, Field CISO

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Proactive Security

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April 1, 2026

AI-powered security for a rapidly growing grocery enterprise

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Protecting a complex, fast-growing retail organization

For this multi-banner grocery holding organization, cybersecurity is considered an essential business enabler, protecting operations, growth, and customer trust. The organization’s lean IT team manages a highly distributed environment spanning corporate offices, 100+ stores, distribution centers and  thousands of endpoints, users, and third-party connections.

Mergers and acquisitions fueled rapid growth, but they also introduced escalating complexity that constrained visibility into users, endpoints, and security risks inherited across acquired environments.

Closing critical visibility gaps with limited resources

Enterprise-wide visibility is a top priority for the organization, says the  Vice President of Information Technology. “We needed insights beyond the perimeter into how users and devices were behaving across the organization.”

A security breach that occurred before the current IT leadership joined the company reinforced the urgency and elevated cybersecurity to an executive-level priority with a focus on protecting customer trust. The goal was to build a multi-layered security model that could deliver autonomous, enterprise-wide protection without adding headcount.

Managing cyber risk in M&A

Mergers and acquisitions are central to the grocery holding company’s growth strategy. But each transaction introduces new cyber risk, including inherited network architectures, inconsistent tooling, excessive privileges, and remnants of prior security incidents that were never fully remediated.

“Our M&A targets range from small chains with a single IT person and limited cyber tools to large chains with more developed IT teams, toolsets and instrumentation,” explains the VP of IT. “We needed a fast, repeatable, and reliable way to assess cyber risk before transactions closed.”

AI-driven security built for scale, speed, and resilience

Rather than layering additional point tools onto an already complex environment, the retailer adopted the Darktrace ActiveAI Security Platform™ in 2020 as part of a broader modernization effort to improve resilience, close visibility gaps, and establish a security foundation that could scale with growth.

“Darktrace’s AI-driven approach provided the ideal solution to these challenges,” shares the VP of IT. “It has empowered our organization to maintain a robust security strategy, ensuring the protection of our network and the smooth operation of our business.”

Enterprise-wide visibility into traffic  

By monitoring both north-south and east-west traffic and applying Self-Learning AI, Darktrace develops a dynamic understanding of how users and devices normally behave across locations, roles, and systems.

“Modeling normal behavior across the environment enables us to quickly spot behavior that doesn’t fit. Even subtle changes that could signal a threat but appear legitimate at first glance,” explains the VP of IT.

Real-time threat containment, 24/7

Adopting autonomous response has created operational breathing room for the security team, says the company’s Cybersecurity  Engineer.

“Early on, we enabled full Darktrace autonomous mode and we continue to do so today,” shares the IT Security Architect. “Allowing the technology to act first gives us the time we need to investigate incidents during business hours without putting the business at risk.”

Unified, actionable view of security ecosystem

The grocery retailer integrated Darktrace with its existing security ecosystem of firewalls, vulnerability management tools, and endpoint detection and response, and the VP of IT described the adoption process as “exceptionally smooth.”

The team can correlate enterprise-wide security data for a unified and actionable picture of all activity and risk. Using this “single pane of glass” approach, the retailer trains Level 1 and Level 2 operations staff to assist with investigations and user follow-ups, effectively extending the reach of the security function without expanding headcount.

From reactive defense to security at scale

With Darktrace delivering continuous visibility, autonomous containment, and integrated security workflows, the organization has strengthened its cybersecurity posture while improving operational efficiency. The result is a security model that not only reduces risk, but also supports growth, resilience, and informed decision-making at the business level.

Faster detection, faster resolution

With autonomous detection and response, the retailer can immediately contain risk while analysts investigate and validate activity. With this approach, the company can maintain continuous protection even outside business hours and reduce the chance of lateral spread across systems or locations.

Enterprise-grade protection with a lean team

From cloud environments to clients to SaaS collaboration tools, Darktrace provides holistic autonomous AI defense, processing petabytes of the organization’s network traffic and investigating millions of individual events that could be indicative of a wider incident.

Today, Darktrace autonomously conducts the majority of all investigations on behalf of the IT team, escalating only a tiny fraction for analyst review. The impact has been profound, freeing analysts from endless alerts and hours of triage so they can focus on more valuable, proactive, and gratifying work.

“From an operational perspective, Darktrace gives us time back,” says the Cybersecurity Engineer. More importantly, says the VP of IT, “it gives us peace of mind that we’re protected even if we’re not actively monitoring every alert.”

A strategic input for M&A decision-making

One of the most strategic outcomes has been the role of cybersecurity on M&A. 90 days prior to closing a transaction, the security team uses Darktrace alongside other tools to perform a cyber risk assessment of the potential acquisition. “Our approach with Darktrace has consistently identified gaps and exposed risks,” says the VP of IT, including:

  • Remnants of previous incidents that were never fully remediated
  • Network configurations with direct internet exposure
  • Excessive administrative privileges in Active Directory or on critical hosts

While security findings may not alter deal timelines, the VP of IT says they can have enormous business implications. “With early visibility into these risks, we can reduce exposure to inherited cyber threats, strengthen our position during negotiations, and establish clear remediation requirements.”

A security strategy built to evolve with the business

As the holding group expands its cloud footprint, it will extend Darktrace protections into Azure, applying the same AI-driven visibility and autonomous response to cloud workloads. The VP of IT says Darktrace's evolving capabilities will be instrumental in addressing the organization’s future cybersecurity needs and ability to adapt to the dynamic nature of cloud security.

“With Darktrace’s AI-driven approach, we have moved beyond reactive defense, establishing a resilient security foundation for confident expansion and modernization.”

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