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February 22, 2023

Find High-Impact Attack Paths with Darktrace / Proactive Exposure Management

Understand high-impact attack paths with Darktrace / Proactive Exposure Management. Learn from detailed use cases and improve your cybersecurity measures effectively.
Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
Elliot Stocker
Product SME
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22
Feb 2023

What are the people, process, and technology assets that would do the most harm, if compromised by an attacker?

Attack path modeling provides a detailed map of all the roads that lead to an organization's crown jewels, prioritized in order of likelihood and potential impact. CISO's are increasingly looking to this kind of solution to complement their security stack because it highlights risks that are specific to this organization's structure, as well as potentially unexpected relationships between devices or users that would prove catastrophic if they were exploited.  

What makes Darktrace's Attack Path Modeling solution stand out?

  • Data sources are varied and information from the entire digital estate is considered
  • Modeling is real-time and continuously re-evaluated
  • Output does not require expert technical knowledge to be leveraged
  • Valuable as a standalone for vulnerability prioritization
  • As a component of the Darktrace ActiveAI Security Platform, the solution provides immediate value by feeding back into detection and response engines (e.g. tag critical assets for detection) but also provides long term systemic improvements as outcomes are followed up.

Thinking like an attacker

It is anticipated that CISOs will soon move beyond just insurance and checkbox compliance, as underwriters include more and more exclusions for certain types of cyber-attacks and the limits of compliance ticking the protection box rather than bolstering operational assurance become more apparent. They will push their teams to opt for more proactive cyber security measures to maximize ROI in the face of budget cuts, shifting investment into tools and capabilities that continuously improve their cyber resilience and demonstrate cyber risk reduction.

While red teams can provide insight into where effort and resource should be most immediately applied, the exercises themselves are often costly, non-exhaustive and infrequently run.

Hackers are constantly seeking pathways, preferably those of least resistance, to compromise a system by exploiting its vulnerabilities. Attack path modeling enables security teams to look at their environment from the perspective of the attacker. In turn, this helps them eliminate attack paths progressively, reducing the options an attacker would have, should they breach the walls.

A deeper dive into Attack Path Modeling

An attack path is a visual representation of the path that an attacker takes to exploit a weakness in the system. It highlights the series of steps (attack vectors) that a threat actor might take from one of the doors into the organization (attack surface) to access valuable assets.

It is typically unusual for an attacker to have a boulevard straight down to the crown jewels. They will most likely leverage a couple of loopholes, unexpected relationships and blind spots in the security stack to piece together a path to these confidential assets. Attack path modeling can help to highlight the attack vectors that connect, to form this path to compromise.  

Figure 1: The Darktrace / Proactive Exposure Management user interface.

How to model attack paths

Darktrace's proprietary Self-Learning AI models relationships, and graph theory is incorporated to understand the importance of users, documents and relationships between these.

Darktrace's Attack Path Modeling component identifies target nodes (users, accounts, devices), it then calculates the shortest paths to these target nodes and weights the results according to the likelihood of this attack path and the damage caused if the target asset was compromised. This is exactly what an attacker would do when planning an attack, albeit with a significant advantage to Darktrace's AI Engine, which has access to more information than the attacker. For the first time, defenders have the upper hand against attackers.

Avoiding siloed efforts

According to a Gartner survey, 75% of organizations are looking at consolidating security tools, not primarily because of cost, but because it helps drive cyber risk reduction. Ensuring that security efforts are part of a wider security ecosystem, rather than siloed efforts, is crucial to maximize the return on these investments.

Darktrace / Proactive Exposure Management integrates with Darktrace's detection and response to ensure that the organization's security posture is hardened, even if the team doesn't have time to eliminate the attack path.

Defensive superiority is key, and Attack Path Modeling is one way to help security teams gain back an advantage. Find out how you can test it in your own environment.

Attack Path Modeling is an objective, however, and there are a few important questions to consider when assessing the different methods of creating these models.

Are we considering all the relevant data when building my attack paths map?

Consider the case where one of your marketing executives has a close friendship with someone in your development team. How do you model that into your attack paths cartography? Attack paths encompass the full digital estate, so the attack path modeling solution should consider information from various parts, internal and external. This may include data from the Email environment, the Network, Endpoints, SaaS & Cloud, Active Directory, Vulnerability Scanners, etc.  

Cross-data analysis is the only way to understand holistic attack paths.

Are we looking at the most up to date map of attack paths?

Relationships between users, devices and other sensitive assets can evolve on a daily basis, this implies attack paths evolve on a daily basis. Ensuring that the methods or solutions used update their understanding continuously and in real-time is vital if security teams want the most up to date understanding of their organization's risk posture.

To improve our security posture, how do we know which attack paths to start with?

One thing is to map the sum-total of attack paths, another is to prioritize them. Attack path modeling gives you the map but adding a risk-assessment (explored in more depth below) layer on top is how you prioritize. This is where graph theory can be very useful to identify choke points that you may want to strengthen.  

Does this output yield actionable insights?

The prime objective of this solution is not simply to provide an assessment of cyber risk posture, but rather to help drive security efforts in the right direction. To that end, the output needs to be accessible to team members that may not have expert cyber skills. Lowering barriers to entry with usable insights and mitigation advice is key to successfully improve the organization's security posture.

Assessing risk to prioritize attack paths

Darktrace Attack Path Modeling (APM) is a risk-based approach to assessing cyber-attack pathways, thinking like an attacker, and probing the path of least resistance. 'Risk' in this case is defined as the product of two factors: Probability and Impact. By using this information to categorize possible attack paths in the risk matrix below, Darktrace's APM can prioritize attack paths to ensure security team efforts are spent on controlling for the most relevant risks for their organization.

Figure 2: Risk matrix for attack path prioritization

A: Defining Probability

There are two types of probability to consider:

The likelihood of one particular door being chosen by an attacker to infiltrate the organization (among the assets at the attack surface - this could be an internet-facing server, an inbox, a SaaS/Cloud account, etc). And,

The likelihood of one particular node (defined as a device or user account) being compromised next, via lateral movement.

Figure 3: Simplified example of calculating probability of lateral movement from a compromised agent to one of two servers

B: Defining Impact

Impact refers to the overall impact of an asset being compromised and unusable. In the case of an asset (e.g.: a key server), the bigger the disruption if this asset goes down, the higher the impact score. If considering a particular document, restricted access and sensitivity score of users accessing it are some of the variables used to estimate impact.

Figure 4: Diagram showing a simplified example of mapping access volume and sensitivity to estimate document value.

Both variables are calculated by the AI autonomously, without requiring human input. Security teams can of course reinforce the AI's understanding of the organization with their business expertise (by tagging additional sensitive devices for example).

A more in-depth description of how impact is propagated to identify key servers or sensitive documents, as well as other components that comprise the Darktrace Attack Path Modeling module can be found in this white paper.

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
Elliot Stocker
Product SME

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April 17, 2026

中国系サイバー作戦の進化 - それはサイバーリスクおよびレジリエンスにとって何を意味するか

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サイバーセキュリティにおいては、これまではインシデント、侵害、キャンペーン、そして脅威グループを中心にリスクを整理してきました。これらの要素は現在も重要です -しかし個別のインシデントにとらわれていては、エコシステム全体の形成を見逃してしまう危険があります。国家が支援する攻撃者グループは、個別の攻撃を実行したり短期的な目標を達成したりするためだけではなく、サイバー作戦を長期的な戦略上の影響力を構築するために使用するようになっています。  

当社の最新の調査レポート、Crimson Echoにおいてもこうした状況にあわせて視点を変えています。キャンペーンやマルウェアファミリー、あるいはアクターのラベルを個別のイベントとして分類するのではなく、ダークトレースの脅威調査チームは中国系グループのアクティビティを長期的に連続した行動として分析しました。このように視野を拡大することで、これらの攻撃者がさまざまな環境内でどのように存在しているか、すなわち、静かに、辛抱強く、持続的に、そして多くのケースにおいて識別可能な「インシデント」が発生するかなり前から下準備をしている様子が明らかになりました。  

中国系サイバー脅威のこれまでの変化

中国系サイバーアクティビティは過去20年間において4つのフェーズで進化してきたと言えます。初期の、ボリュームを重視したオペレーションは1990年代にから2000年代初めに見られ、それが2010年代にはより構造化された、戦略に沿った活動となり、そして現在の高度な適応性を備えた、アイデンティティを中心とした侵入へと進化しています。  

現在のフェーズの特徴は、大規模、攻撃の自制、そして永続化です。攻撃者はアクセスを確立し、その戦略的価値を評価し、維持します。これはより全体的な変化を反映したものです。つまりサイバー作戦は長期的な経済的および地政学的戦略に組み込まれる傾向が強まっているということです。デジタル環境へのアクセス、特に国家の重要インフラやサプライチェーン、先端テクノロジーにつながるものは、ある種の長期的な戦略的影響力と見られるようになりました。  

複雑な問題に対するダークトレースのビヘイビア分析アプローチ

国家が支援するサイバーアクティビティを分析する際、難しい問題の1つはアトリビューションです。従来のアプローチは多くの場合、特定の脅威グループ、マルウェアファミリー、あるいはインフラに判定を依存していました。しかしこれらは絶えず変化するものであり、さらに中国系オペレーションの場合、しばしば重複が見られます。

Crimson Echo は2022年7月から2025年9月の間の3年間にDarktrace運用環境で観測された異常なアクティビティを回顧的に分析した結果です。ビヘイビア検知、脅威ハンティング、オープンソースインテリジェンス、および構造化されたアトリビューションフレームワーク(Darktrace Cybersecurity Attribution Framework)を用いて、数十件の中~高確度の事例を特定し、繰り返し発生しているオペレーションのパターンを分析しました。  

この長期的視野を持ったビヘイビア中心型アプローチにより、ダークトレースは侵入がどのように展開していくかについての一定のパターンを特定することができ、動作のパターンが重要であることがあらためて確認されました。  

データが示していること

分析からいくつかの明確な傾向が浮かび上がりました:

  • 標的は戦略的に重要なセクターに集中していたのです。データセット全体で、侵入の88%は重要インフラと分類される、輸送、重要製造業、政府、医療、ITサービスを含む組織で発生しています。   
  • 戦略的に重要な西側経済圏が主な焦点です。米国だけで、観測されたケースの22.5%を占めており、ドイツ、イタリア、スペイン、および英国を含めた主要なヨーロッパの経済圏と合わせると侵入の半数以上(55%)がこれらの地域に集中しています。  
  • 侵入の63%近くがインターネットに接続されたシステムのエクスプロイトから始まっており、外部に露出したインフラの持続的リスクがあらためて浮き彫りになりました。  

サイバー作戦の2つのモデル

データセット全体で、中国系のアクティビティは2つの作戦モデルに従っていることが確認されました。  

1つ目は“スマッシュアンドグラブ”(強奪)型と表現することができます。これらはスピードのために最適化された短期型の侵入です。攻撃者はすばやく動き  – しばしば48時間以内にデータを抜き出し  – ステルス性よりも規模を重視します。これらの侵害の期間の中央値は10日ほどです。検知の危険を冒しても短期的利益を得ようとしていることが明らかです。  

2つ目は“ローアンドスロー”(低速)型です。これらのオペレーションはデータセット内ではあまり多くありませんでしたが、潜在的影響はより重大です。ここでは攻撃者は持続性を重視し、アイデンティティシステムや正規の管理ツールを通じて永続的なアクセスを確立し、数か月間、場合によっては数年にわたって検知されないままアクセスを維持しようとします。1つの注目すべきケースでは、脅威アクターは環境に完全に侵入して永続性を確立し、600日以上経ってからようやく再浮上した例もありました。このようなオペレーションの一時停止は侵入の深さと脅威アクターの長期的な戦略的意図の両方を表しています。このことはサイバーアクセスが長期にわたって保有し活用するべき戦略的資産であることを示しており、これは最も戦略的に重要なセクターにおいて最もよく見られたパターンです。  

同じ作戦エコシステムにおいて両方のモデルを並行して利用し、標的の価値、緊急性、意図するアクセスに基づいて適切なモデルを選択することも可能だという点に注意することも重要です。“スマッシュアンドグラブ” モデルが見られたからといって諜報活動が失敗したとのみ解釈すべきではなく、むしろ目標に沿った作戦上の選択かもしれないと見るべきでしょう。“ローアンドスロー” 型は粘り強い活動のために最適化され、“スマッシュアンドグラブ” 型はスピードのために最適化されています。どちらも意図的な作戦上の選択と見られ、必ずしも能力を表していません。  

サイバーリスクを再考する

多くの組織にとって、サイバーリスクはいまだに一連の個別のイベントとして位置づけられています。何かが発生し、検知され、封じ込められ、組織はそれを乗り越えて前に進みます。しかし永続的アクセスは、特にクラウド、アイデンティティベースのSaaSやエージェント型システム、そして複雑なサプライチェーンネットワークが相互接続された環境では、重大な持続的露出リスクを作り出します。システムの中断やデータの流出が発生していなくても、そのアクセスによって業務や依存関係、そして戦略的意思決定についての情報を得られるかもしれません。サイバーリスクはますます長期的な競合情報収集に似てきています。

その影響はSOCだけの問題ではありません。組織はガバナンス、可視性、レジリエンスについての考え方を見直し、サイバー露出をインシデント対応の問題ではなく構造的なビジネスリスクとして扱う必要があります。  

次の目標

この調査の目的は、これらの脅威の仕組みについてより明確な理解を提供することにより、防御者がより早期にこれらを識別しより効果的に対応できるようにすることです。これには、インジケーターの追跡からビヘイビアの理解にシフトすること、アイデンティティプロバイダーを重要インフラリスクとして扱うこと、サプライヤーの監視を拡大すること、迅速な封じ込めのための能力に投資すること、などが含まれます。  

ダークトレースの最新調査、”Crimson Echo: ビヘイビア分析を通じて中国系サイバー諜報技術を理解する” についてより詳しく知るには、ビジネスリーダー、CISO、SOCアナリストに向けたCrimson Echoレポートのエグゼクティブサマリーを ここからダウンロードしてください。 

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About the author
Nathaniel Jones
VP, Security & AI Strategy, Field CISO

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April 17, 2026

Why Behavioral AI Is the Answer to Mythos

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How AI is breaking the patch-and-prevent security model

The business world was upended last week by the news that Anthropic has developed a powerful new AI model, Claude Mythos, which poses unprecedented risk because of its ability to expose flaws in IT systems.  

Whether it’s Mythos or OpenAI’s GPT-5.4-Cyber, which was just announced on Tuesday, supercharged AI models in the hands of hackers will allow them to carry out attacks at machine speed, much faster than most businesses can stop them.  

This news underscores a stark reality for all leaders: Patching holes alone is not a sufficient control against modern cyberattacks. You must assume that your software is already vulnerable right now. And while LLMs are very good at spotting vulnerabilities, they’re pretty bad at reliably patching them.

Project Glasswing members say it could take months or years for patches to be applied. While that work is done, enterprises must be protected against Zero-Day attacks, or security holes that are still undiscovered.  

Most cybersecurity strategies today are built like a daily multivitamin: broad, preventative, and designed to keep the system generally healthy over time. Patch regularly. Update software. Reduce known vulnerabilities. It’s necessary, disciplined, and foundational. But it’s also built for a world where the risks are well known and defined, cycles are predictable, and exposure unfolds at a manageable pace.

What happens when that model no longer holds?

The AI cyber advantage: Behavioral AI

The vulnerabilities exposed by AI systems like Mythos aren’t the well-understood risks your “multivitamin” was designed to address. They are transient, fast-emerging entry points that exist just long enough to be exploited.

In that environment, prevention alone isn’t enough. You don’t need more vitamins—you need a painkiller. The future of cybersecurity won’t be defined by how well you maintain baseline health. It will be defined by how quickly you respond when something breaks and every second counts.

That’s why behavioral AI gives businesses a durable cyber advantage. Rather than trying to figure out what the attacker looks like, it learns what “normal” looks like across the digital ecosystem of each individual business.  

That’s exactly how behavioral AI works. It understands the self, or what's normal for the organization, and then it can spot deviations in from normal that are actually early-stage attacks.

The Darktrace approach to cybersecurity

At Darktrace, we’ve been defending our 10,000 customers using behavioral AI cybersecurity developed in our AI Research Centre in Cambridge, U.K.

Darktrace was built on the understanding that attacks do not arrive neatly labeled, and that the most damaging threats often emerge before signatures, indicators, or public disclosures can catch up.  

Our AI algorithms learn in real time from your personalized business data to learn what’s normal for every person and every asset, and the flows of data within your organization. By continuously understanding “normal” across your entire digital ecosystem, Darktrace identifies and contains threats emerging from unknown vulnerabilities and compromised supply chain dependencies, autonomously curtailing attacks at machine speed.  

Security for novel threats

Darktrace is built for a world where AI is not just accelerating attacks, but fundamentally reshaping how they originate. What makes our AI so unique is that it's proven time and again to identify cyber threats before public vulnerability disclosures, such as critical Ivanti vulnerabilities in 2025 and SAP NetWeaver exploitations tied to nation-state threat actors.  

As AI reshapes how vulnerabilities are found and exploited, cybersecurity must be anchored in something more durable than a list of known flaws. It requires a real-time understanding of the business itself: what belongs, what does not, and what must be stopped immediately.

What leaders should do right now

The leadership priority must shift accordingly.

First, stop treating unknown vulnerabilities as an edge case. AI‑driven discovery makes them the norm. Security programs built primarily around known flaws, signatures, and threat intelligence will always lag behind an attacker that is operating in real time.

Second, insist on an understanding of what is actually normal across the business. When threats are novel, labels are useless. The earliest and most reliable signal of danger is abnormal behavior—systems, users, or data flows that suddenly depart from what is expected. If you cannot see that deviation as it happens, you are effectively blind during the most critical window.

Finally, assume that the next serious incident will occur before remediation guidance is available. Ask what happens in those first minutes and hours. The organizations that maintain resilience are not the ones waiting for disclosure cycles to catch up—they are the ones that can autonomously identify and contain emerging threats as they unfold.

This is the reality of cybersecurity in an AI‑shaped world. Patching and prevention remain important foundations, but the advantage now belongs to those who can respond instantly when the unpredictable occurs.

Behavioral AI is security designed not just for known threats, but for the ones that AI will discover next.

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About the author
Ed Jennings
President and CEO
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