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December 22, 2025

今年の展望:2026年に注目すべきAIサイバーセキュリティのトレンド

毎年、ダークトレースのエキスパート達は、日々発生するインシデント、脆弱性、ニュースの動きを客観的に振り返り、脅威ランドスケープを形作るさまざまな力について考察することにより、これからの1年で最も重要になると思われるトレンドを調べ、発表しています。2026年に対する私たちの予測は次の通りです。
Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
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22
Dec 2025

はじめに:2026年のサイバー脅威トレンド

毎年、私たちは社内のエキスパートに聞き取り調査を実施し、日々発生するインシデント、脆弱性、ニュースの動きを客観的に振り返り、脅威ランドスケープを形作るさまざまな力について考察しています。目的はシンプルです。それは、顧客が直面している現実の課題、R&Dチームが研究している技術や問題、そして攻撃者と防御者の双方がどのように適応しているかに基づいて、今後1年間で最も重要となると思われるトレンドを特定し、共有することです。

2025年、生成AIおよび初期のエージェント型システムが、限られたパイロットプロジェクトでの運用からより広範な採用へと拡大していきました。生成AIツールが、日常的に使用されるSaaS製品や企業のワークフローに埋め込まれ、AIエージェントがより多くのデータやシステムにアクセスするようになり、私たちは脅威アクターがどのように商用AIモデルを操作し攻撃に使用するのか、その片鱗を確認しました。同時に、拡大するクラウドおよびSaaSエコシステム、そして自動化の使用の増加により、従来のセキュリティの前提にはますます無理が生じています。

2026年を展望するにあたり、AIモデル、エージェント、そしてそれらを動かすアイデンティティが、攻撃者と防御者の両方にとって、緊張 – と同時に機会 – のキーポイントとなりつつあることがすでに見て取れます。アイデンティティ、信頼、データ完全性、人間による意思決定など、長期的な課題およびリスクがなくならない一方で、AIと自動化によりサイバーリスクのスピードと規模は拡大するでしょう。

以下は当社のエキスパートが確信する、サイバーセキュリティの次のフェーズを形成するであろうトレンド、および組織が備えるべき現実です。

次の重大内部関係者リスクはエージェント型AI

2026年、さまざまな組織がエージェント型AIの意図しない挙動による初の大規模なセキュリティインシデントを経験するでしょう。これらは必ずしも悪意によるものとは限りませんが、エージェントが如何に簡単に影響を受けてしまうかということに起因します。AIエージェントはその設計上、人を助けますが、思慮に欠け、前後関係や影響を理解せずに動作します。そのため非常に効率的であると同時に、非常に影響されやすいとも言えます。人間の内部関係者とは異なり、エージェント型システムはソーシャルエンジニアリングで操られたり、脅迫されたり、買収されたりする必要がありません。クリエイティブなプロンプトを入力される、正しいプロンプトを間違って解釈する、あるいは間接的なプロンプトインジェクションに脆弱であるだけでよいのです。アクセス、範囲、振る舞いについての強力なコントロールが存在しなければ、エージェントはデータを不必要に共有したり、コミュニケーションの転送先を間違えたり、重大なビジネスリスクを招くアクションを実行してしまったりする可能性があります。AIの導入を安全に行うためには、エージェントを最高レベルのアイデンティティとして扱い、意図に基づいてではなくその振る舞いに基づいて監視し、制約し、評価する必要があります。

-- ニコール・キャリナン(Nicole Carignan)、セキュリティおよびAI戦略担当上級副社長

プロンプトインジェクションは理論段階からトップニュースとなるような侵害の発生へ

2026年、AIを導入した企業に対する間接的なプロンプトインジェクション攻撃についての初めての大きなニュースを目にすることになるでしょう。アクセスしやすいチャットボットあるいはエージェント型システムが隠されたプロンプトを取り込むことによる侵害です。実際問題として、AIシステムによる承認されないデータ露出や意図しない有害な振る舞い、たとえば不必要な情報の共有、コミュニケーションの転送間違い、あるいは意図した範囲を超えたアクションなどが発生するでしょう。このリスクが最近注目されていることは -特にAIを使用したブラウザおよび追加的セーフティレイヤーによりエージェントの動作をガイドするという文脈において-この課題に対する業界の認識の高まりを示しています。

-- コリン・シャプロウ(Collin Chapleau)、セキュリティ& AI戦略担当シニアディレクター

人間はますますついていけない状況に

When it comes to cyber, people aren’t failing; the system is moving faster than they can. Attackers exploit the gap between human judgment and machine-speed operations. The サイバーに関しては、人間が失敗しているのではありません。システムが人間にはついていけない速度で動作しているのです。攻撃者は人間の判断力とマシンスピードで実行されるオペレーションの隙間を悪用しているのです。過去数年に見られるディープフェイクや感情に訴える詐欺の増加は、私たちが注意するようにこれまで教えられてきた、人間的な手掛かりに気づく能力を超えています。詐欺は今やソーシャルプラットフォームや暗号化されたチャットに拡大しており、数分で支払いまで終了します。人間に対して最終防衛線としての期待をすることは現実的ではありません。

防御は人間の間違いやすさを前提として設計されなければなりません。自動化された出処チェック、暗号署名、デュアルチャネル検証などを人間の判断の前に行うべきです。トレーニングは重要ではありますが、それだけでは隙間を埋めることはできません。これからの1年、パートナーシップにより注目すべきです。それはシステムがリスクを吸収し、人間がプレッシャーを受けてではなくコンテキストに基づいた判断が可能になる関係です。

-- マーガレット・カニンガム(Margaret Cunningham)、セキュリティ & AI戦略担当副社長

AIは攻撃者のボトルネックを解消 -より小規模な組織が影響を受ける

現在、多くの企業で侵害が発生していない要因の1つは攻撃者側のボトルネックです。人間のハッカー資源が足りないということです。キーボードを操る人間の数は脅威ランドスケープにおいて速度を左右する条件の1つです。AIと自動化技術の進化によりこのボトルネックがますます解消されていくでしょう。すでにこの傾向は確認されています。自社は目立たなすぎて攻撃者に気づかれないことを願う「ダチョウ型」アプローチは攻撃者のキャパシティが拡大する中でもはや機能しなくなるでしょう。

-- マックス・ハイネメイヤー(Max Heinemeyer)、グローバルフィールドCISO

SaaSプラットフォームが格好のサプライチェーン標的に

攻撃者は簡単なことを学びました。それは、SaaSプラットフォームを侵害すると大きな利益につながる場合があるということです。その結果、高い信頼を受けビジネス環境に深く組み込まれている、一般的な商用SaaSプロバイダーが標的となることが増えています。こうした攻撃の一部は、あまりなじみのないブランドのソフトウェアが関係したものかもしれませんが、それらが下流に及ぼす影響は非常に大きくなります。2026年には、攻撃者が正規の認証情報、API、あるいは設定ミスを利用して従来の防御を完全に回避するような侵害が増えると予想されます。

-- ナサニエル・ジョーンズ(Nathaniel Jones)、セキュリティ & AI戦略担当副社長

サイバー攻撃用生成AIおよびAIアシスタントの商業化が進む

2026年、私たちが注目しているトレンドの1つは、AI支援によるサイバー犯罪の商業化です。たとえば、サイバー犯罪用プロンプトプレイブックがダークウェブ上で販売されています。これは簡単に言えば攻撃者にAIモデルの不正使用またはジェイルブレイクの方法を示す、コピー&ペーストで使えるフレームワークです。これはAIがサイバー犯罪への参入障壁を引き下げるという、2025年に見られた傾向がさらに進んだものです。2026年には、これらのテクニックが製品化され、スケール可能となり、再利用も格段に簡単になることが予想されます。

-- トビー・ルイス(Toby Lewis)、脅威分析グローバルヘッド

結論

これらのトレンドを合わせて考えると、サイバーセキュリティの中核的課題、たとえばアイデンティティ、信頼、データ、人間の判断、これらは劇的に変化しているわけではなく、依然としてほとんどのインシデントの根本に存在します。急激に変化しているのは、これらの課題が現れる環境です。AIと自動化が、攻撃者のスケール速度、リスクが拡大する規模、そして意図しない動作がいかに簡単に重大な事態を招く結果となるかということを含めすべてを加速しています。そして、クラウドサービスやSaaSプラットフォーム等のテクノロジーがさらに深くビジネスに組み込まれるのと同時に、潜在的アタックサーフェスも拡大を続けています。  

予測が現実になる保証はありません。しかし現在出現しつつあるパターンが示していることは、2026年が、AIを保護することがビジネス全体を保護することと切り離せなくなる年になるだろうということです。AIがどのように使用され、どのように振る舞い、そのように不正使用され得るかを理解することにより、このことに今から備える組織は、今後1年間にこれらのテクノロジーを自信を持って導入できる可能性が高いでしょう。

組織のAI導入を安全に、侵害を招くことなく実現する方法についてさら詳しく知るには、2026年2月3日に開催されるダークトレースのライブウェビナーにご参加ください。

Inside the SOC
Darktrace cyber analysts are world-class experts in threat intelligence, threat hunting and incident response, and provide 24/7 SOC support to thousands of Darktrace customers around the globe. Inside the SOC is exclusively authored by these experts, providing analysis of cyber incidents and threat trends, based on real-world experience in the field.
Written by
The Darktrace Community

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August 21, 2026

AI Agents: Securing the Path from Intent to Action

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The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recently published guidance on managing the cyber risk of agentic AI. While the document is framed as interim advice as more formal guidance is developed, the framing reflects the current state of the industry: organizations are already deploying agents into production environments while standards, controls, and operating models for autonomous systems remain unsettled. Governance is evolving alongside adoption rather than preceding it, a reality which underscores the importance of robust controls.  

The NCSC’s guidance recommends aligning controls to an agent's level of autonomy, assigning distinct identities, limiting permissions, constraining access to systems and data, monitoring activity, maintaining human oversight, and preserving the ability to intervene when necessary. Most of these recommendations will sound familiar to security teams. The challenge is not the novelty of the controls. It is the type of system those controls now need to govern.

The shift from model security to agent security

For several years, AI security discussions have focused heavily on models. Can a model be manipulated? Jailbroken? Trusted? Can it expose information it should not? Those questions remain important, but they capture only part of the problem. A model generating text is one thing. A system connected to identities, applications, tools, workflows, and business data is another.

The difference becomes clearer when comparing a chatbot that answers questions with an agent that can retrieve customer records, update tickets, invoke tools, trigger workflows, and interact with external systems. The underlying model may be identical. Its access is not. The security question begins to shift from what the model knows to what the system can do.

The same theme appears in the Five Eyes statement released earlier this year, describing AI as a force multiplier that is accelerating both offensive and defensive cyber operations. The NCSC guidance explores what that reality looks like when autonomous systems begin operating inside enterprise environments.

Securing AI agents in operation

The NCSC spends relatively little time debating model behavior and considerably more time discussing identity, permissions, monitoring, oversight, containment, and response. Agents are treated as participants within an environment rather than isolated pieces of technology.  

That's broadly consistent with how we think about the problem at Darktrace.

An agent should not be treated as an extension of a user account. It develops its own behavioral patterns. It accesses systems, interacts with data, invokes tools, and moves across workflows in ways that can be observed independently. Understanding what an agent is permitted to do matters. Understanding how it actually behaves once deployed, and whether that behavior aligns with business intent, matters just as much.

Identity provides an obvious example. The NCSC recommends assigning distinct identities to agents rather than allowing them to disappear into surrounding human or service accounts. Most importantly, assigning agents distinct identities enables independent behavioral monitoring.

Development assumptions vs. real-world behavior

The same principle extends to monitoring. NCSC guidance places agent activity within normal security operations rather than treating it as a separate AI governance function. Many of the controls described are put in place before an agent begins operating. Sandboxing, credential design, approval workflows and human oversight all reflect judgments about how the system is expected to behave and what risks it is likely to create.

Actual use may challenge those assumptions. Access patterns change. Workflows expand. Systems begin interacting with resources they have never touched before. Processes that appeared reasonable during design behave differently in production. Human oversight requirements may turn out to be either excessive or inadequate once the system is operating at scale and operating within the context of unique business processes.

The Five Eyes statement points to a similar issue: organizations need confidence that controls continue to work as intended once systems are exposed to real users, data, tools and operational pressures. Often, the question is not whether an agent is technically allowed to perform an action, but whether its behavior remains consistent with the role it was intended to play.

Monitoring and governance of AI agents go hand-in-hand

This problem is exactly why monitoring and governance should be treated as part of the same process. Governance sets the initial parameters for deployment, while monitoring provides evidence about whether those parameters remain appropriate. That evidence should, in turn, inform changes to permissions, controls and oversight.

This matters increasingly as autonomous systems are integrated into business processes. The relevant risk is shaped not only by the model or agent itself, but by what it can access, what actions it can take, and how its behavior changes in practice.

Developing continuous oversight of AI agent behavior

The implication is clear: governance cannot end at deployment. Organizations need a way to understand how agents behave after deployment, test whether controls remain appropriate, and adjust them as conditions change. That requires visibility not just into technical activity, but into whether that activity makes sense in the context of the business process the agent is intended to support.

This is where business-centric behavioral security can become critical. Risk does not emerge from the model itself: it emerges from the actions an autonomous system takes within the enterprise and the downstream consequences of those actions.  

An agent can operate exactly as intended and still create risk if it accesses sensitive information in an unexpected context, exercises permissions in ways that create unintended exposure, or influences business processes in ways that were not anticipated during design and review.

Traditional governance vs. behavioral analytics

Traditional governance frameworks provide assurance at a point in time. Behavioral security can provide ongoing visibility into how autonomous systems interact with the organization they are meant to serve. Rather than focusing exclusively on model performance or policy compliance, organizations need to understand whether an agent's behavior aligns with business intent, operational expectations, and acceptable risk tolerances as conditions change.

As enterprises move from isolated AI deployments to interconnected ecosystems of agents, visibility into behavior becomes as important as visibility into code. Governance determines what an autonomous system is permitted to do. Behavioral analytics helps determine what it is doing, what business outcomes it is producing, and whether those outcomes remain aligned with the organization's objectives.

[related-resource]

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Margaret Cunningham, PhD
VP, Security & AI Strategy, Field CISO

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August 19, 2026

When AI Becomes the Lure: A Fake Gemini Installer Delivers Vidar

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Key takeaways

  • Darktrace observed a customer download a fake Google Gemini installer hosted on Google Colab, resulting in the execution of the Vidar information stealer.
  • Darktrace identified the compromise through behavioral indicators, including suspicious process activity, anomalous network communications, and indicators of credential theft, before autonomously containing the threat.
  • The incident highlights how threat actors are increasingly exploiting trusted platforms and a growing interest in AI tools to distribute malware through seemingly legitimate software acquisition workflows.

The Growing Abuse of Generative AI

As organizations are increasingly adopting generative AI tools into their daily workflows, attackers are adapting their distribution methods accordingly too. As part of their day-to-day work, users are now searching for AI assistants, programming tools, browser extensions, desktop applications, and productivity integrations.

Recent reports have highlighted campaigns that use fake AI software and AI-related installers to distribute malware and steal credentials [1]. Researchers have documented campaigns that exploit fake AI-themed websites and services to distribute information stealers and backdoors [2]. Security researchers have also observed attackers disguising malware as legitimate installers for AI software to increase the likelihood of victim interaction and execution [3].

In July 2026, Darktrace observed one such case within a customer environment in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, where attackers used a fake generative AI installer to deliver the prolific information stealer Vidar. This incident highlights how threat actors are exploiting interest in AI services to distribute established malware using increasingly convincing social engineering techniques.

How a Fake Gemini Installer Delivered Vidar

Initial Access: From Search Result to Malware Download

Unlike many malware campaigns that begin with a phishing email, this activity appears to have originated from a user searching for and downloading software.

Darktrace first observed unusual activity on the customer network after a suspicious executable file was launched from a user’s Download folder. Further investigation revealed that the file purported to be a Google Gemini installer and was named “Download_Google_Gemini_For_Windows.exe”.

During the initial analysis, it was noted that the top search result for the suspicious filename associated pointed to a file hosted on Google Colab, a cloud-based Jupyter notebook platform, commonly used by developers, researchers, and data scientists to run code and machine learning workloads through a web browser. By leveraging another trusted Google platform, the attacker increased the likelihood that users would perceive the download as legitimate, making the lure more convincing to those searching for Gemini-related software.

Figure 1: The Google Colab page containing a download prompt for the fake Google Gemini installer.

Further investigation of the Google Colab page revealed that the download prompt redirected users to a secondary site, hxxps://micronsoftwares[.]com, which posed as a "Windows Software Hub" download page and offered the fake Gemini installer for download.

Figure 2: The secondary website posing as a "Windows Software Hub" download page, which likely hosted the fake Gemini installer.

While the investigation did not uncover any HTTP or file-download telemetry data that conclusively identified the download source, SSL communication sessions with Google Colab were detected immediately before the suspicious file was executed. The timing of these connections suggests that the user interacted with the Colab resource before being redirected to the secondary site from which the executable was downloaded.

The user was not simply tricked into opening an email attachment; instead, the attacker embedded malicious content into a process many users would consider entirely legitimate: searching for and downloading software associated with a trusted platform.

Weaponizing Trusted Platforms

At the time of review (July 15, 2026), Darktrace's Threat Research team confirmed that the Google Colab page was still active and prompting users to download a ZIP archive containing the binary file.

The archive also appeared to contain a README file instructing users to run the binary file with administrator privileges and add it to their antivirus software’s exception lists. These instructions suggest that the campaign relied heavily on social engineering, convincing users to take actions that would facilitate malware execution and potentially bypass security checks.

The use of a legitimate platform also complicates the user’s decision-making. Downloads associated with a trusted service are often perceived as less suspicious than those hosted on unfamiliar domains. When combined with the branding of a widely used AI tool, the lure becomes even more convincing.

Malware Analysis

Darktrace’s Threat Research team identified the executable file as the information-stealing malware Vidar. Analysis revealed that the binary file was a newer Go-compiled variant that communicated with Telegram-based infrastructure. Darktrace’s researchers also identified dtm[.]kijangturbo88[.]top as a command-and-control (C2) endpoint associated with the activity. While the malware itself was not novel, the lure and delivery mechanism was.

For a deeper look at the information stealer, see Darktrace’s 2023 analysis of Vidar.

Figure 3: Darktrace’s detection of the unusual outbound connection associated with the fake Gemini installer.

Shortly after execution, the process established communications with the external IP address 91.98.98[.]86 via port 443, directly linking the executable to suspicious network activity observed on the device. Subsequent open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis of the revealed multiple malicious associations [5].

Additional Darktrace detections included unusual SSL activity from the affected device. Analysis of related SSL telemetry identified 91.98.111[.]49 as additional infrastructure associated  with the activity [6].

Subsequent alerts from the customer's Microsoft Defender for Endpoint integration later confirmed activity consistent with the theft of browser credentials and other sensitive data from the affected endpoint.

Taken together, these detections provided a clear picture of the attack, from the execution of a suspicious file and unusual network connections to indicators of C2 activity and credential theft.

Figure 4: Darktrace’s detection of anomalous activity following the execution of the fake Gemini installer, seen in the Model Alert Event Log.

Darktrace's Autonomous Response

Following the detection, Darktrace’s Autonomous Response took immediate containment action, including blocking communication with suspicious external infrastructure, including 91.98.98[.]86, and quarantining the compromised device.

Despite the apparent legitimacy of the activity, with the installer hosted on a trusted platform and resembling a routine software download, Darktrace was able to detect and contain the attack because the device's behavior deviated from its normal pattern.

Figure 5: Automated containment actions implemented by Darktrace's Autonomous Response following the detection of activity associated with the fake Gemini installer.

Conclusion

This investigation highlights how threat actors continue to adapt established malware delivery techniques to emerging technology trends. While the malware itself was not new, the distribution method was. By disguising Vidar as a Google Gemini installer and hosting the malicious content on a trusted platform, the attack aligned its lure with a growing behavioral trend: users actively searching for AI tools and services as part of their day-to-day work.

Although fake installers are not a new phenomenon, the rapid rise of generative AI has created new opportunities for threat actors. Rather than relying solely on traditional delivery methods, attackers can now target users who are actively searching for AI applications. As AI adoption continues to accelerate across enterprise environments, organizations should remain alert to campaigns that exploit this interest through fake applications, malicious websites, manipulated search results, the misuse of trusted platforms, and AI-themed social engineering.

Credit to Rushanth Ramanathan (Cyber Analyst) Joanna Ng (Detection Engineer)

Edited by Ryan Traill (Content Manager)

Appendices

Darktrace Model Detections

  • Security Integration / C2 Activity and Integration Detection
  • Endpoint / New Suspicious Executable Launched
  • Endpoint / Process Connection / Unusual Connection from New Process
  • Anomalous Connection / Rare External SSL Self-Signed
  • Security Integration / High Severity Integration Detection
  • Antigena / Network / Significant Anomaly /  Antigena Significant Security Integration and Network Activity Block

•Antigena / Network / Significant Anomaly /  Antigena Significant Anomaly from Client Block

List of Indicators of Compromise (IoCs)

IoC Type Description
Download_Google_Gemini_For_Windows.exe File Fake Gemini-themed installer observed during the investigation.
GoogleAppInstaller.exe File Related executable identified through endpoint telemetry.
91.98.98[.]86 IP Address External destination contacted by the malicious executable.
91.98.111[.]49 IP Address Related infrastructure identified through SSL certificate pivoting.
dtm[.]kijangturbo88[.]top Domain Command-and-control endpoint identified during malware analysis.
1e13c2c9eac72daf63fd00a9946878949e159ae6ec51b54ec64f942d79d61913 SHA256 Malware sample associated with the fake Gemini installer.

MITRE ATT@CK Mapping


MITRE ATT&CK Mapping Tactic Technique
Initial Access T1204 User Execution
Execution T1204.002 User Execution: Malicious File
Defence Evasion T1036 Masquerading
Credential Access T1555 Credentials from Password Stores
Credential Access T1555.003 Credentials from Web Browsers
Command and Control T1071 Application Layer Protocol
Exfiltration T1041 Exfiltration Over C2 Channel
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About the author
Rushanth Ramanathan
Cyber Analyst
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